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Where to find this in the Library
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You may access the physical version of this item by going to the Reading Room Reference Desk. Please provide the library staff with either the title and location of this item or the item's catalog call number.
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Identifier
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JML.MS1133-0283
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Barcode
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JML.MS1133-0283
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Title
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Presumptions, Prophecies and Predictions
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Description
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Text of a lecture delivered to the Sphex Club in Lynchburg. The paper, titled "Presumptions, Prophecies, and Predictions," explores the myriad ways in which expert predictions and decisions have historically faltered, often with significant consequences. Drawing from a broad spectrum of examples across technology, military strategy, economics, and more, the author illustrates the frequent disparity between confident forecasts and actual outcomes. Key instances include the underestimation of the telephone, the automobile, and digital technology's impact, highlighting the complex interplay between innovation, societal acceptance, and the limitations of foresight. The paper concludes by reflecting on the implications of these prediction failures for understanding future trends and decision-making processes.
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Date
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17 October 2013
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Location
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Lynchburg, Virginia
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Digital Format
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pdf
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Language
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English
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Publisher
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George M. Jones Library Association
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Repository
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George M. Jones Library Association
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Rights
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
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George M. Jones Library Association
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Rights Holder
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Sigler, Julius A.
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George M. Jones Library Association
